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<p>The Kivu-Rusizi basin, a transboundary biodiversity hotspot in East Africa and home to eight key biodiversity areas (KBAs), possesses resources essential for local and global communities, including critical minerals. However, it confronts various conservation challenges, primarily stemming from increasing socio-economic demands, security instability, a lack of joint monitoring, and insufficient comprehensive research across the basin among the involved countries. This study delivers the first assessment and projections of spatial habitat quality in the basin and its KBAs from 2017 to 2031 by integrating the InVEST habitat assessment model with land-use change predictions from the MOLUSCE-QGIS model to understand habitat quality status, the impacts of land-use dynamics, vulnerability hotspots, drivers of change, and needs to be addressed in the basin’s conservation. The results reveal widespread habitat vulnerability, particularly impacting rangelands, which are projected to decline by 9.4 percentage points. Basin-wide habitat quality is expected to decrease from 93.5 to 88%, with KBAs experiencing a decline from 95.1 to 90.1%. Specific KBAs, such as Virunga, Kibira, Rusizi, and Itombwe National Parks, show substantial declines, with 35 to 50% of their habitats in vulnerable conditions. Other KBAs, including Nyungwe, Kahuzi-Biega, and Gishwati-Mukura National Parks, are expected to face additional threats, particularly from roads and built-up infrastructure. Threat extent and intensity analysis revealed complementary threats with diverse impacts: deforestation, mining, and agriculture dominated by spatial coverage (78.5% of total impact; deforestation alone &gt;40%), while mining and urbanization showed the strongest per-unit impact (β = −8.20 and −5.48; <i>p</i> &lt; 0.001), with odds ratios near zero (OR = 0.0003 and 0.004), indicating that the presence of these drivers almost entirely eliminates the probability of suitable habitat quality at their operational sites. The study highlights the urgent need for continuous border monitoring, habitat conservation, and cross-border policy harmonization among the three countries within the basin.</p>

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Investigating Habitat Quality Fluctuations and Its Socio-ecological Drivers in Key Biodiversity Areas of the Kivu-Rusizi Transboundary Basin of Rwanda, Burundi, and DRC

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月14日

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  • Fabien Muhirwa,
  • Lanhai Li,
  • Duan Weili,
  • Marie Fidele Tuyisenge,
  • Albert Poponi Maniraho,
  • Alexandre Tuyishime,
  • Chrysi Laspidou,
  • Barthelemy Harerimana,
  • Vincent Nzabarinda,
  • Leonidas Maniraho

摘要

The Kivu-Rusizi basin, a transboundary biodiversity hotspot in East Africa and home to eight key biodiversity areas (KBAs), possesses resources essential for local and global communities, including critical minerals. However, it confronts various conservation challenges, primarily stemming from increasing socio-economic demands, security instability, a lack of joint monitoring, and insufficient comprehensive research across the basin among the involved countries. This study delivers the first assessment and projections of spatial habitat quality in the basin and its KBAs from 2017 to 2031 by integrating the InVEST habitat assessment model with land-use change predictions from the MOLUSCE-QGIS model to understand habitat quality status, the impacts of land-use dynamics, vulnerability hotspots, drivers of change, and needs to be addressed in the basin’s conservation. The results reveal widespread habitat vulnerability, particularly impacting rangelands, which are projected to decline by 9.4 percentage points. Basin-wide habitat quality is expected to decrease from 93.5 to 88%, with KBAs experiencing a decline from 95.1 to 90.1%. Specific KBAs, such as Virunga, Kibira, Rusizi, and Itombwe National Parks, show substantial declines, with 35 to 50% of their habitats in vulnerable conditions. Other KBAs, including Nyungwe, Kahuzi-Biega, and Gishwati-Mukura National Parks, are expected to face additional threats, particularly from roads and built-up infrastructure. Threat extent and intensity analysis revealed complementary threats with diverse impacts: deforestation, mining, and agriculture dominated by spatial coverage (78.5% of total impact; deforestation alone >40%), while mining and urbanization showed the strongest per-unit impact (β = −8.20 and −5.48; p < 0.001), with odds ratios near zero (OR = 0.0003 and 0.004), indicating that the presence of these drivers almost entirely eliminates the probability of suitable habitat quality at their operational sites. The study highlights the urgent need for continuous border monitoring, habitat conservation, and cross-border policy harmonization among the three countries within the basin.