Prediction of pathological complete response in locally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma treated with neoadjuvant chemo-immunotherapy using volumetric multisequence MRI histogram analysis

This study aimed to develop a multisequence MRI-based volumetric histogram metrics model for predicting pathological complete response (pCR) in advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemo-immunotherapy (NCIT) and compare its predictive performance with AJCC staging and RECIST 1.1 criteria.

Twenty-four patients with locally advanced HNSCC from a prospective phase II trial were enrolled for analysis. All patients underwent pre- and post-NCIT MRI examinations from which whole-tumor histogram features were extracted, including T1WI, T2WI, enhanced T1WI (T1Gd), diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) sequences, and their corresponding apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) maps. The pathological results divided the patients into pathological complete response (pCR) and non-pCR (N-pCR) groups. Delta features were calculated as the percentage change in histogram features from pre- to post-treatment. After data reduction and feature selection, logistic regression was used to build prediction models. ROC analysis was performed to assess the diagnostic performance.

Eleven of 24 patients achieved pCR. Pre_T2_original_firstorder_Minimum, Post_ADC_original_firstorder_MeanAbsoluteDeviation, and Delta_T1Gd_original_firstorder_Skewness were associated with achieving pCR after NCIT. The Combined_Model demonstrated the best predictive performance (AUC 0.95), outperforming AJCC staging (AUC 0.52) and RECIST 1.1 (AUC 0.72). The Pre_Model (AUC 0.83) or Post-Model (AUC 0.83) had a better predictive ability than AJCC staging.

Multisequence MRI-based volumetric histogram analysis can non-invasively predict the pCR status of HNSCC patients undergoing NCIT. The use of histogram features extracted from pre- and post-treatment MRI exhibits promising predictive performance and offers a novel quantitative assessment method for evaluating pCR in HNSCC patients receiving NCIT.