<p>A mathematical model allowing the simulation of condensation events in cargo containers stored under tropical conditions was developed. The model considers the most important parameters affecting condensation in cargo containers subjected to tropical insolation and weather conditions, allowing the assessment of condensation risks in cargo containers carrying hygroscopic products packed in permeable bags such as jute and polypropylene bags. A case study on bagged corn gluten meal was analyzed. The model requires the use of solar insolation and weather information for the location retrieved from NASA databases, using the geographical coordinates and dates involved. The model calculates the roof plate temperature, air headspace temperature and cargo top layers temperature using heat transfer considerations. The quantity of condensate that eventually occurs was calculated using the product sorption isotherms and psychrometric data to estimate the dew point of air in the headspace during day and night. The effects of variables such as initial product moisture, headspace volume, solar insolation, and external coating color were also investigated. Results showed that light-colored coatings, such as white, significantly reduce condensation probability compared with dark-colored coatings, such as dark red. The model offers an approximate approach to condensation in cargo containers, but further validation with field data is required, and might be used in forensic analysis of condensation cases, damage prevention and claim investigations.</p>