Taguchi-based modeling of aflatoxin B1 and B2 in rice as a function of temperature and humidity
摘要
This study examined the effects of temperature and relative humidity on aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) and aflatoxin B2 (AFB2) production in rice under controlled laboratory conditions using a Taguchi L9 orthogonal design. Temperature (25–45 °C) and relative humidity (50–90%) were evaluated as the main environmental factors influencing toxin formation. Signal-to-noise (S/N) ratio analysis and analysis of variance (ANOVA) were used to assess factor significance and response behavior. The results indicated that AFB1 production was primarily influenced by temperature, while AFB2 was affected by both temperature and relative humidity. The highest aflatoxin levels were generally observed at 35 °C under elevated relative humidity, whereas lower temperature (25 °C) and reduced humidity (50%) were associated with decreased toxin formation. Across all conditions, AFB1 concentrations were consistently higher than AFB2, reflecting differences in their biosynthetic pathways. ANOVA results confirmed the statistical significance of temperature for AFB1 (p < 0.01), while both factors were significant for AFB2 (p < 0.05). First-order linear regression models adequately described the relationship between environmental variables and aflatoxin concentrations within the experimental domain. Higher-order models were not retained due to overfitting and limited improvement in predictive performance, as indicated by predicted R2 values. Overall, the findings demonstrate consistent trends in aflatoxin response to environmental variation under controlled short-term conditions. However, the results should be interpreted strictly within the studied range and are not intended for direct extrapolation to long-term or field storage environments.