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<p>In response to the multi-source and dynamic nature of risks in power grid project bidding, as well as the limitations of conventional risk assessment methods in data adaptability and weight allocation, this study proposes an integrated risk assessment framework that combines a weighting method with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Using a game-theoretic model, we analyze the formation mechanism of bidding risks and establish an evaluation system comprising six dimensions and thirty indicators, covering socio-natural, economic-financial, information asymmetry, technical, managerial, and competitive risks. By integrating the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the entropy weight method, a combined weighting model is developed to achieve a balanced integration of subjective and objective judgments. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is further incorporated, employing membership functions to quantify ambiguous risk indicator boundaries within a three-tier hierarchical evaluation structure. Empirical analysis based on 36 bidding projects from Yunnan Province demonstrates that the risk evaluation results align closely with actual conditions. This research enhances the objectivity and dynamic adaptability of risk assessment, providing a scientific foundation for graded and precise risk management in power grid project bidding.</p>

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Identification and evaluation of grid project bidding risk factors based on combined empowerment-fuzzy integrated evaluation approach

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月16日

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  • Du Yan,
  • Cui Zhe

摘要

In response to the multi-source and dynamic nature of risks in power grid project bidding, as well as the limitations of conventional risk assessment methods in data adaptability and weight allocation, this study proposes an integrated risk assessment framework that combines a weighting method with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Using a game-theoretic model, we analyze the formation mechanism of bidding risks and establish an evaluation system comprising six dimensions and thirty indicators, covering socio-natural, economic-financial, information asymmetry, technical, managerial, and competitive risks. By integrating the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the entropy weight method, a combined weighting model is developed to achieve a balanced integration of subjective and objective judgments. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is further incorporated, employing membership functions to quantify ambiguous risk indicator boundaries within a three-tier hierarchical evaluation structure. Empirical analysis based on 36 bidding projects from Yunnan Province demonstrates that the risk evaluation results align closely with actual conditions. This research enhances the objectivity and dynamic adaptability of risk assessment, providing a scientific foundation for graded and precise risk management in power grid project bidding.