Correlated equilibria and forecasts based on Naïve play in Hawk–Dove games

In most games, for equilibrium to result, players need to forecast the equilibrium and choose consistent strategies. We elicit forecasts of outcomes in a series of Hawk–Dove (aka chicken) games played by other subjects (players). We ask whether these forecasts are consistent with any correlated equilibrium of a class of the games that allow for the possibility of types with pro-social preferences. Surprisingly, even though players are anonymous and randomly matched, forecasters believe that the players’ actions are correlated. However, forecasts are not consistent with any correlated equilibrium. Beliefs in non-random (assortative) matching are consistent with the correlated forecasts.