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Prudent aggregation of quasi-hyperbolic experts

  • Bach Dong-Xuan,
  • Philippe Bich,
  • Bertrand Wigniolle

摘要

Imagine a cohort of economic experts appraising long-term projects through the quasi-hyperbolic discounting criterion. The parameters (long-run and short-run discount rates) used by each expert may differ, which implies different policy recommendations. Subsequently, a decision maker is faced with the task of selecting an efficient aggregation from these varied opinions. This paper proposes a solution to reconcile these conflicting recommendations, taking into account the decision maker’s adoption of a “prudent” behavior.