Group-based trajectories of potentially preventable hospitalisations among older adults after a hip fracture

Key predictors of three trajectory group membership of potentially preventable hospitalisations were age, the number of comorbidities, the presence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and congestive heart failure, and frailty risk at the occurrence of hip fracture. These predictors of their trajectory group could be used in targeting prevention strategies.

Although older adults with hip fracture have a higher risk of multiple readmissions after index hospitalisation, little is known about potentially preventable hospitalisations (PPH) after discharge. This study examined group-based trajectories of PPH during a five-year period after a hip fracture among older adults and identified factors predictive of their trajectory group membership.

This retrospective cohort study was conducted using linked hospitalisation and mortality data in New South Wales, Australia, between 2013 and 2021. Patients aged ≥ 65 years who were admitted after a hip fracture and discharged between 2014 and 2016 were identified. Group-based trajectory models were derived based on the number of subsequent PPH following the index hospitalisation. Multinominal logistic regression examined factors predictive of trajectory group membership.

Three PPH trajectory groups were revealed among 17,591 patients: no PPH (89.5%), low PPH (10.0%), and high PPH (0.4%). Key predictors of PPH trajectory group membership were age, number of comorbidities, dementia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), congestive heart failure (CHF), frailty risk, place of incident, surgery, rehabilitation, and length of hospital stay. The high PPH had a higher proportion of patients with ≥ 2 comorbidities (OR: 1.86, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.04–3.32) and COPD (OR: 2.97, 95%CIs: 1.76–5.04) than the low PPH, and the low and high PPHs were more likely to have CHF and high frailty risk as well as ≥ 2 comorbidities and COPD than the no PPH.

Identifying trajectories of PPH after a hip fracture and factors predictive of trajectory group membership could be used to target strategies to reduce multiple readmissions.