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<p>Economic agents’ sentiments about the future significantly influence economic activity and are widely used as indicators, yet the factors driving these sentiments are understudied, particularly in developing countries. This study examines how oil market changes and uncertainties impact economic sentiment in major emerging economies. Using monthly data and forecasting regressions, we link consumer and business confidence to oil market developments. In a Bayesian SVAR model, we identify five oil-related shocks and analyze their effects on sentiment indicators. The results show that oil price uncertainty and supply shocks negatively affect confidence, while demand-related shocks have a positive impact. Consumer confidence in Russia reacts more intensely and persistently to oil shocks, while business confidence in Turkey shows stronger overall responses. These findings underscore the importance of oil market dynamics in shaping economic sentiment in emerging markets.</p>

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Oil shocks and economic sentiment indicators in major emerging countries

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月14日

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  • Cosmas Dery,
  • Nahiyan Faisal Azad

摘要

Economic agents’ sentiments about the future significantly influence economic activity and are widely used as indicators, yet the factors driving these sentiments are understudied, particularly in developing countries. This study examines how oil market changes and uncertainties impact economic sentiment in major emerging economies. Using monthly data and forecasting regressions, we link consumer and business confidence to oil market developments. In a Bayesian SVAR model, we identify five oil-related shocks and analyze their effects on sentiment indicators. The results show that oil price uncertainty and supply shocks negatively affect confidence, while demand-related shocks have a positive impact. Consumer confidence in Russia reacts more intensely and persistently to oil shocks, while business confidence in Turkey shows stronger overall responses. These findings underscore the importance of oil market dynamics in shaping economic sentiment in emerging markets.