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<p>The Syrian refugee crisis is one of the most pressing humanitarian challenges of the twenty-first century, with Turkey hosting over 3.6 million Syrians and carrying a disproportionate share of the global responsibility. This study examines how large-scale refugee inflows have affected regional economic development in Turkey using three complementary outcomes: GDP per capita, total GDP, and GDP relative to the native population. Using panel data from 81 provinces between 2006 and 2019, I exploit spatial variation in refugee shares within a difference-in-differences framework, employing a distance-based instrument to address the endogeneity of refugee settlement patterns. The results reveal that a 10-percentage-point increase in the refugee-to-population ratio reduces GDP per capita by approximately 7–9%. However, this pattern does not imply a general contraction in economic activity. Estimates based on total GDP and GDP relative to the native population instead indicate modest increases in aggregate production in provinces receiving more refugees. Economic output expands alongside the inflow, but rapid population growth weakens per-capita indicators.</p>

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The effect of mass migration on economic development: Syrian refugees in Turkey

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月20日

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  • Betul Turkum

摘要

The Syrian refugee crisis is one of the most pressing humanitarian challenges of the twenty-first century, with Turkey hosting over 3.6 million Syrians and carrying a disproportionate share of the global responsibility. This study examines how large-scale refugee inflows have affected regional economic development in Turkey using three complementary outcomes: GDP per capita, total GDP, and GDP relative to the native population. Using panel data from 81 provinces between 2006 and 2019, I exploit spatial variation in refugee shares within a difference-in-differences framework, employing a distance-based instrument to address the endogeneity of refugee settlement patterns. The results reveal that a 10-percentage-point increase in the refugee-to-population ratio reduces GDP per capita by approximately 7–9%. However, this pattern does not imply a general contraction in economic activity. Estimates based on total GDP and GDP relative to the native population instead indicate modest increases in aggregate production in provinces receiving more refugees. Economic output expands alongside the inflow, but rapid population growth weakens per-capita indicators.