Impact of e-commerce on local retail markets: evidence from Amazon fulfillment centers
摘要
This paper estimates the effect of local e-commerce on labor outcomes in the retail sector at the county level for the period 2010 to 2017, using the presence of Amazon fulfillment centers as a proxy. A two-stage event study design is employed, taking advantage of the staggered rollout of fulfillment centers across U.S. counties. E-commerce plays a dual role in the retail sector—as both a collaborator and a competitor. Traditional retail establishments face job losses as consumers shift toward online purchases due to greater convenience, variety, and lower prices. This initial disruption phase puts pressure on brick-and-mortar stores, resulting in downsizing and the displacement of low-skilled retail workers. Over time, however, an adjustment phase emerges as small and medium-sized firms adapt by selling their products online. Through collaboration with platforms like Amazon, these businesses benefit from reduced shipping costs and access to a larger customer base, leading to the creation of new high-skilled retail jobs. The results show that total retail employment remains broadly unchanged, but the composition of the workforce shifts markedly. High-skilled employment increases while low-skilled employment falls, widening the employment gap. Wages follow a similar trend, with short-run gains for high-skilled workers eventually giving way to compression, while low-skilled wages steadily decline. These patterns result in growing within-sector inequality and underscore the uneven labor market consequences of local e-commerce expansion for workers of different skill levels.