How adolescent adversity affects late-life fertility outcomes: evidence from China
摘要
This paper presents new evidence on the causal link between adolescent adversity and late-life fertility outcomes in China. We adopt a fuzzy regression discontinuity design by exploiting the “send-down” movement during China’s Cultural Revolution. The policy was a social and political campaign in the 1960s and 1970s in which educated urban youths were sent to rural areas to learn from farmers. We find that the send-down movement increased the fertility age and decreased the probability of giving birth before 25, the number of children, and the probability of having a second child. These effects can be attributed to delaying marriage, changing fertility concepts, deteriorating health status, and increasing unhealthy behaviors. These findings highlight the need for governments to address and mitigate adolescent adversities, as they can have long-lasting impacts on late-life fertility outcomes, influencing population dynamics and societal structures in significant ways.