Scholarlink

<p>Informality poses significant hurdles, hindering efforts for development in Africa. While it is recognized that informality is negatively associated with development, it is less clear how development is causally impacting informality. This paper aims to isolate the causal effect of development on informality in Africa. Leveraging a dataset on measures of informality as a share of GDP over the period 1995–2018 for African countries, derived from the two-sector dynamic general equilibrium and the multiple indicators-multiple causes models, the empirical strategy for causal identification encompasses a large range of econometric methodologies including, <i>inter alia</i>, instrumental variable regression, Bayesian inference, and causal machine learning. The results suggest: (i) a persistent negative causal impact of development on the size of informality in Africa, confirming that as African countries progress in their development trajectories, levels of informality tend to decline; (ii) the existence of heterogeneous effects across the African nations that significantly shrink the magnitude of the average causal impact of development on informality.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

The Jedi path to formal economy: untangling the causal effects of development on informality in Africa

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月13日

查看全文
  • Fayssal Ayad

摘要

Informality poses significant hurdles, hindering efforts for development in Africa. While it is recognized that informality is negatively associated with development, it is less clear how development is causally impacting informality. This paper aims to isolate the causal effect of development on informality in Africa. Leveraging a dataset on measures of informality as a share of GDP over the period 1995–2018 for African countries, derived from the two-sector dynamic general equilibrium and the multiple indicators-multiple causes models, the empirical strategy for causal identification encompasses a large range of econometric methodologies including, inter alia, instrumental variable regression, Bayesian inference, and causal machine learning. The results suggest: (i) a persistent negative causal impact of development on the size of informality in Africa, confirming that as African countries progress in their development trajectories, levels of informality tend to decline; (ii) the existence of heterogeneous effects across the African nations that significantly shrink the magnitude of the average causal impact of development on informality.