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<p>Using the difference-in-difference (DID) model, this empirical study constructs the treated group and the control group based on a series of subgroup observations and explores the third-country investment effect of the Chinese-led Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) from 2003 to 2019. The findings show that while the BRI enhances China’s outward direct investment (ODI) in Belt and Road (B&amp;R) member countries, this institutional arrangement adversely affects China’s ODI in non-B&amp;R nations. Further heterogeneity analysis reveals varying effects of the BRI on third-country ODI. A promotional effect is more pronounced in developed Western European nations, whereas a significant suppressive impact is observed on Chinese ODI in African nations. Notably, lower-ranked B&amp;R members exert a suppressive influence on third-country investments in non-B&amp;R nations under the BRI. Our study offers valuable insights for accurately assessing the third-country investment implications of the BRI and devising an optimal strategy for China’s global ODI.</p>

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Third-country investment effects of the belt and road initiative: evidence from China’s overseas direct investment

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年4月12日

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  • Jian Chen,
  • Xiao-qin Dong,
  • Wei Li,
  • Di Zhao

摘要

Using the difference-in-difference (DID) model, this empirical study constructs the treated group and the control group based on a series of subgroup observations and explores the third-country investment effect of the Chinese-led Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) from 2003 to 2019. The findings show that while the BRI enhances China’s outward direct investment (ODI) in Belt and Road (B&R) member countries, this institutional arrangement adversely affects China’s ODI in non-B&R nations. Further heterogeneity analysis reveals varying effects of the BRI on third-country ODI. A promotional effect is more pronounced in developed Western European nations, whereas a significant suppressive impact is observed on Chinese ODI in African nations. Notably, lower-ranked B&R members exert a suppressive influence on third-country investments in non-B&R nations under the BRI. Our study offers valuable insights for accurately assessing the third-country investment implications of the BRI and devising an optimal strategy for China’s global ODI.