Tests and graphical tools for the comparison of time series predictors
摘要
We develop statistical tools for comparing two predictors in a time series setting. We define test statistics for testing superior predictive performance and derive asymptotic distributions of the test statistics. The test statistics are accompanied with graphical tools: an image of p-values and a graph colored with p-values. The graphical tools make it possible to analyze the performance of predictors: we get insight into how the performance varies in different time periods and in different regimes of various explanatory variables. We show that a kernel regression predictor performs better in some cases than typical GARCH-predictors.