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<p>Understanding spatial heterogeneity in the factors shaping floating populations’ <i>hukou</i> transfer intentions is vital for fostering social harmony and sustainable urban development in China. Utilizing data from the 2018 China Migrants Dynamic Survey, this study investigates the spatial heterogeneity in the determinants of <i>hukou</i> transfer decisions among migrant individuals and uncovers underlying root causes. Employing GIS spatial analysis, we first identify four representative types of cities exemplifying distinct spatial dependency of settlement intentions. Subsequently, a geographically weighted logistic regression model is employed, revealing three distinct spatial patterns of various factors: the “South–North” pattern (gender, marital status, <i>hukou</i> type, migration distance, administrative scale of migration, PM2.5), the “East–West” pattern (GDP, wage level, educational attainment, population, perceived discrimination, duration of residence), and the locally distinct pattern (age, migrant household size, industrial structure). This study further explores three latent driving mechanisms behind these patterns, rooted in geographical culture, economic development, and location-specific characteristics. By constructing a “Factor-Pattern-Root” (FPR) framework and integrating perspectives from geography and sociology, this study elucidates how and why various factors exert spatially varying effects on <i>hukou</i> transfer intentions of China’s floating population.</p>

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Spatially heterogeneous drivers of hukou transfer intentions in China: a geographically weighted logistic regression analysis

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年5月31日

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  • Feng Shi,
  • Weiwei Cao,
  • Runhua Huang,
  • Wei Geng

摘要

Understanding spatial heterogeneity in the factors shaping floating populations’ hukou transfer intentions is vital for fostering social harmony and sustainable urban development in China. Utilizing data from the 2018 China Migrants Dynamic Survey, this study investigates the spatial heterogeneity in the determinants of hukou transfer decisions among migrant individuals and uncovers underlying root causes. Employing GIS spatial analysis, we first identify four representative types of cities exemplifying distinct spatial dependency of settlement intentions. Subsequently, a geographically weighted logistic regression model is employed, revealing three distinct spatial patterns of various factors: the “South–North” pattern (gender, marital status, hukou type, migration distance, administrative scale of migration, PM2.5), the “East–West” pattern (GDP, wage level, educational attainment, population, perceived discrimination, duration of residence), and the locally distinct pattern (age, migrant household size, industrial structure). This study further explores three latent driving mechanisms behind these patterns, rooted in geographical culture, economic development, and location-specific characteristics. By constructing a “Factor-Pattern-Root” (FPR) framework and integrating perspectives from geography and sociology, this study elucidates how and why various factors exert spatially varying effects on hukou transfer intentions of China’s floating population.