Tracking the peacocks: a gravity analysis of the Chinese migration system, 1990–2020

This paper presents a gravity analysis of interregional migration in China over the three decades making up the 1990–2020 time frame, with special attention given to the nation’s transition toward an advanced economy and older demographic structure. It begins by setting out a theoretical framework characterizing migration as a spatiotemporal process that is governed by gravitational and equilibrating forces, along with constraints imposed by the arrow of time. The paper then outlines how China’s economy and demographics have evolved since 1970 and implements a series of gravity-type econometric models of the nation’s migration system. The models test a series of hypotheses about the workings of China’s space economy and, importantly, reveal structural changes unleashed by its recent development trajectory. Among these is the waning influence of the hukou system, which manifests, in the language of time geography, as an authority constraint. In net, the evidence suggests that, controlling for key demographic conditions, the Chinese people are increasingly mobile, relocating in favor of economic opportunity and quality of life—even if this movement limits their access to basic rights. The paper ends with some closing thoughts and suggestions for future research.