<p>For a modern plant, engineering changes have become an integral part of production processes involving complex high-tech products, such as radio-electronic devices. The need to introduce engineering changes in the design documentation is determined by the competitiveness and producibility of the design. The article proposes a method for predicting engineering changes based on a set of disagreements between experts belonging to two subject matter groups, i.e. developers and technologists, when analyzing producibility at the stages of product design. An inverse functional relation between the qualitative factors of product producibility and the causes of engineering changes has been established. The algorithm for creating a minimum list of factors comprehensively characterizing the producibility of the product by the generalized criterion of informativity is proposed. The hypothesis that the lower the level of producibility of a radio-electronic device design, the higher the probability of engineering change requests is proved. A predictive model for the dependence of the probability of product modifications on the level of experts’ disagreement during the qualitative assessment of producibility at the early stages of design is generated. The obtained forecast of the number and structure of forthcoming engineering changes makes it possible to pre-allocate additional production resources to ensure technological preparation of the conducted modifications without compromising the main production processes, as well as to handle the flow of requests for engineering changes evenly and qualitatively.</p>

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Prediction of engineering changes in the design of a radio-electronic device based on its producibility analysis at the design stages

  • G. Kh. Irzaev

摘要

For a modern plant, engineering changes have become an integral part of production processes involving complex high-tech products, such as radio-electronic devices. The need to introduce engineering changes in the design documentation is determined by the competitiveness and producibility of the design. The article proposes a method for predicting engineering changes based on a set of disagreements between experts belonging to two subject matter groups, i.e. developers and technologists, when analyzing producibility at the stages of product design. An inverse functional relation between the qualitative factors of product producibility and the causes of engineering changes has been established. The algorithm for creating a minimum list of factors comprehensively characterizing the producibility of the product by the generalized criterion of informativity is proposed. The hypothesis that the lower the level of producibility of a radio-electronic device design, the higher the probability of engineering change requests is proved. A predictive model for the dependence of the probability of product modifications on the level of experts’ disagreement during the qualitative assessment of producibility at the early stages of design is generated. The obtained forecast of the number and structure of forthcoming engineering changes makes it possible to pre-allocate additional production resources to ensure technological preparation of the conducted modifications without compromising the main production processes, as well as to handle the flow of requests for engineering changes evenly and qualitatively.