Housing restriction policies and internal migration
摘要
This paper investigates the impacts of housing purchase restrictions on internal migration and household tenure choices in Chinese cities. We develop a spatial model that incorporates individuals’ migration and tenure decisions across cities. The model predicts that potentially affected homebuyers will either switch destinations or change tenure choices, depending on heterogeneous city characteristics. Utilizing the China Migrants Dynamic Survey and a difference-in-differences approach, we examine the model’s implications and find that the restrictions lead to a decrease in migration inflows and a reduced proportion of homeowners among migrants in the restricted cities relative to the unrestricted ones. However, this overall pattern masks important heterogeneity across cities: incoming migrants are more likely to adjust their tenure choices when restricted cities offer better development prospects or desirable living conditions, and they are more inclined to relocate to alternative destinations when such attributes are lacking. These findings highlight the importance of considering unintended consequences on migration when designing housing policies.