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<p>We provide the first empirical evidence that prostitution is a sexual substitute for marriage. Using the adoption of the Nordic model of penalizing sex buyers, we find that restraining commercial sex leads to a significant increase in marriage rates and a significant decrease in divorce rates. These results are mainly driven by marriages among young people and marriages among previously single people, compared to those who were previously in legal unions. We further show that the substitution effect of prostitution on marriage is stronger when women’s socioeconomic status is weaker and when people prefer marriage over cohabitation.</p>

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Prostitution or marriage? Evidence from the Nordic model

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月6日

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  • Huasheng Gao,
  • Vanya Petrova,
  • Mengfan Yin

摘要

We provide the first empirical evidence that prostitution is a sexual substitute for marriage. Using the adoption of the Nordic model of penalizing sex buyers, we find that restraining commercial sex leads to a significant increase in marriage rates and a significant decrease in divorce rates. These results are mainly driven by marriages among young people and marriages among previously single people, compared to those who were previously in legal unions. We further show that the substitution effect of prostitution on marriage is stronger when women’s socioeconomic status is weaker and when people prefer marriage over cohabitation.