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<p>This paper measures the effect of China’s one-child policy, which is possibly the largest social experiment in human history, on fertility. Because the one-child policy applied only to <i>Han</i> Chinese but not to ethnic minorities, we construct a difference-in-differences estimator to identify the effect of the policy on fertility using two rounds of the Chinese Population Census. We find that the average effect of the one-child policy on the probability of having a second child is <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="148_2025_1061_Article_IEq1.gif" Format="GIF" Height="13" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="19" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(-\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mo>-</mo> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>11 percentage points, or 38% of the overall drop in the probability for Chinese women over time, suggesting that 62% of the fertility drop was due to other social and economic reasons. We also find that the magnitude is larger in urban areas and for more educated women. Our robustness tests suggest that our difference-in-differences estimates are unlikely to be driven by other policy or socioeconomic changes that have affected the <i>Han</i> and minorities differently.</p>

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The effect of the one-child policy on fertility in China: identification based on difference-in-differences

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年1月14日

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  • Hongbin Li,
  • Xinzheng Shi

摘要

This paper measures the effect of China’s one-child policy, which is possibly the largest social experiment in human history, on fertility. Because the one-child policy applied only to Han Chinese but not to ethnic minorities, we construct a difference-in-differences estimator to identify the effect of the policy on fertility using two rounds of the Chinese Population Census. We find that the average effect of the one-child policy on the probability of having a second child is \(-\) - 11 percentage points, or 38% of the overall drop in the probability for Chinese women over time, suggesting that 62% of the fertility drop was due to other social and economic reasons. We also find that the magnitude is larger in urban areas and for more educated women. Our robustness tests suggest that our difference-in-differences estimates are unlikely to be driven by other policy or socioeconomic changes that have affected the Han and minorities differently.