Threat beyond the border: Kim Jong-un’s nuclear tests and China’s rural migration

Between 2006 and 2017, North Korea conducted six nuclear weapon tests near its border with China, which clearly posed an existential threat to China. Utilizing data from a representative sample of rural households and adopting a quasi-experimental framework, this study analyzes the effects of human-made nuclear threats on the coping strategies of rural households in China living on the border with North Korea. Our results show that nuclear tests have sizable causal effects on several aspects of non-farm employment and land rented out by rural residents in the border area of China. This study finds that, due to the human-made radiation risk resulting from North Korean nuclear tests, households in the border regions of China bordering North Korea increase labor out-migration and lease out more land. Multiple robustness tests consistently support this conclusion. Our study further found that nuclear tests led to a significant decline in the economic viability of villages, which ultimately led to the out-migration of households. We also find that the impact of moving away from rural areas due to nuclear tests is more pronounced for households with higher human capital, higher income, and a lower proportion of elderly family members. As rural households respond to nuclear threats by migrating out, North Korea’s nuclear tests exacerbate the phenomenon of rural hollowing-out in China’s border regions.