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<p>In this article, we explore the entangled futures of global governance, artificial intelligence (AI), and climate change by developing four scenarios for the year 2045. The aim is not to predict the future, but to expand our imagination of plausible trajectories, while critically examining the political, technological, and environmental interdependencies that shape what lies ahead. Using an interdisciplinary approach grounded in futures studies and scenario analysis, we investigate how governance systems influence, and are influenced by, both AI development and climate responses. We begin by drawing on different academic fields in a conceptual and historical investigation of the three domains, identifying key dynamics and tensions. From this foundation, we construct four narrative scenarios, each articulating a distinct alignment of governance structures, climate pathways, and AI trajectories. Through these fictional-yet-grounded futures, we aim to provoke reflection and debate about which paths might lead to sustainability, justice, and collective flourishing, and which might not. Our contribution lies in the exploration and development of a method for developing and mapping potential future worlds, and using these to evaluate and make use of normative and strategic questions they pose in the present.</p>

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Four visions on the future of global governance, AI, and climate change

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月10日

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  • Henrik Skaug Sætra,
  • Enya Rogerson

摘要

In this article, we explore the entangled futures of global governance, artificial intelligence (AI), and climate change by developing four scenarios for the year 2045. The aim is not to predict the future, but to expand our imagination of plausible trajectories, while critically examining the political, technological, and environmental interdependencies that shape what lies ahead. Using an interdisciplinary approach grounded in futures studies and scenario analysis, we investigate how governance systems influence, and are influenced by, both AI development and climate responses. We begin by drawing on different academic fields in a conceptual and historical investigation of the three domains, identifying key dynamics and tensions. From this foundation, we construct four narrative scenarios, each articulating a distinct alignment of governance structures, climate pathways, and AI trajectories. Through these fictional-yet-grounded futures, we aim to provoke reflection and debate about which paths might lead to sustainability, justice, and collective flourishing, and which might not. Our contribution lies in the exploration and development of a method for developing and mapping potential future worlds, and using these to evaluate and make use of normative and strategic questions they pose in the present.