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<p>Polyethylene mulching films (PEM) are widely used in agriculture to improve water-use efficiency, regulate soil temperature, and enhance crop yields, but their poor degradability leads to persistent soil residues and high recovery costs. Biodegradable mulching films (BDM) offer a promising alternative by mitigating long-term plastic pollution, yet their adoption remains limited due to higher costs and uncertain field performance. To explore the key drivers of farmers’ decisions, we developed an evolutionary game-theoretic model coupled with system dynamics to simulate farmer–government interactions under varying economic and agronomic conditions. Results indicate that farmers prefer PEM under current parameters, but several tipping points can shift this equilibrium. BDM adoption becomes favorable when the price gap with PEM narrows to ~ USD 210/ha, when crop revenues exceed USD 4400/ha, when yield losses from PEM residues reach 50%, or when BDM provides a 3–4% yield advantage. Promoting BDM in high-value crops and regions heavily affected by mulch residues is particularly promising. Policy measures that impose levies on PEM and enhance BDM durability and yield performance can substantially accelerate adoption, providing actionable insights for reducing agricultural plastic pollution while sustaining farm productivity.</p>

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Unveiling Key Factors in Determining Biodegradable Mulching Film Adoption Through Evolutionary Game Analysis

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月14日

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  • Wanying Lin,
  • Xi Mo,
  • Luca Nizzetto,
  • Xuan Shi,
  • Yuan Chen,
  • Jinhui Li,
  • Yan Lin

摘要

Polyethylene mulching films (PEM) are widely used in agriculture to improve water-use efficiency, regulate soil temperature, and enhance crop yields, but their poor degradability leads to persistent soil residues and high recovery costs. Biodegradable mulching films (BDM) offer a promising alternative by mitigating long-term plastic pollution, yet their adoption remains limited due to higher costs and uncertain field performance. To explore the key drivers of farmers’ decisions, we developed an evolutionary game-theoretic model coupled with system dynamics to simulate farmer–government interactions under varying economic and agronomic conditions. Results indicate that farmers prefer PEM under current parameters, but several tipping points can shift this equilibrium. BDM adoption becomes favorable when the price gap with PEM narrows to ~ USD 210/ha, when crop revenues exceed USD 4400/ha, when yield losses from PEM residues reach 50%, or when BDM provides a 3–4% yield advantage. Promoting BDM in high-value crops and regions heavily affected by mulch residues is particularly promising. Policy measures that impose levies on PEM and enhance BDM durability and yield performance can substantially accelerate adoption, providing actionable insights for reducing agricultural plastic pollution while sustaining farm productivity.