Purpose <p>Assess the utility of access to healthcare, clinical conditions, and social determinants of health (SDoH) variables in population-level suicide prediction models.</p> Methods <p>Negative binomial regression models were constructed using data from population-level surveys, state death certificates, federal records of behavioral health services, and U.S. Census data. Outcomes of interest were suicidal ideation and suicide attempt (SISA), inpatient psychiatric hospitalization (IPH), and suicide death. The relative changes in pseudo R<sup>2</sup> were used to assess the impact of variable categories (i.e., clinical conditions, access to healthcare, and geo-derived SDoH) when added to a demographic-only baseline suicide prediction model.</p> Results <p>Clinical data showed a significant impact, with the largest percent increase in pseudo R<sup>2</sup> compared to the demographic-only baseline model (321.9% for SISA; 736.9% for IPH; 18.9% for suicide death). Access to healthcare and geo-derived SDoH also improved model performances for all outcomes, but considerably lower than clinical variables. Models with all variable categories had the highest pseudo R<sup>2</sup>, with .68, .58, and .46 for SISA, IPH, and suicide, respectively. Availability of emergency mental health services was found to be protective against IPH (IRR .90; 95% CI .84—.96) and suicide death (IRR .91; 95% CI .84—.97).</p> Conclusions <p>Clinical data proved to have the most effective variables in predicting a continuum of suicidal behaviors. While the impacts of access to healthcare and SDoH factors were comparatively limited, these variables also contributed to additional model improvements. These findings show the utility of population-level healthcare services and SDoH for ecological suicide behavior risk prediction.</p>

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Assessing the utility of health access data and social determinants of health in ecological suicide prediction models

  • Matthew D. Castner,
  • Christopher Kitchen,
  • Christelle Xiong,
  • Mark J. Bittle,
  • Paul S. Nestadt,
  • Holly C. Wilcox,
  • Hadi Kharrazi

摘要

Purpose

Assess the utility of access to healthcare, clinical conditions, and social determinants of health (SDoH) variables in population-level suicide prediction models.

Methods

Negative binomial regression models were constructed using data from population-level surveys, state death certificates, federal records of behavioral health services, and U.S. Census data. Outcomes of interest were suicidal ideation and suicide attempt (SISA), inpatient psychiatric hospitalization (IPH), and suicide death. The relative changes in pseudo R2 were used to assess the impact of variable categories (i.e., clinical conditions, access to healthcare, and geo-derived SDoH) when added to a demographic-only baseline suicide prediction model.

Results

Clinical data showed a significant impact, with the largest percent increase in pseudo R2 compared to the demographic-only baseline model (321.9% for SISA; 736.9% for IPH; 18.9% for suicide death). Access to healthcare and geo-derived SDoH also improved model performances for all outcomes, but considerably lower than clinical variables. Models with all variable categories had the highest pseudo R2, with .68, .58, and .46 for SISA, IPH, and suicide, respectively. Availability of emergency mental health services was found to be protective against IPH (IRR .90; 95% CI .84—.96) and suicide death (IRR .91; 95% CI .84—.97).

Conclusions

Clinical data proved to have the most effective variables in predicting a continuum of suicidal behaviors. While the impacts of access to healthcare and SDoH factors were comparatively limited, these variables also contributed to additional model improvements. These findings show the utility of population-level healthcare services and SDoH for ecological suicide behavior risk prediction.