Trajectories of work disability and unemployment before and after a common mental disorder diagnosis among young private sector employees in Sweden–a register-based longitudinal study

To identify trajectory groups of work disability (WD), including sick leave and disability pension, and unemployment three years before and six years (from Y-3 to Y + 6) after a common mental disorder (CMD) diagnosis and to investigate associations of socio-demographic, work-related and clinical factors with trajectory membership.

A longitudinal nationwide register-based study was conducted including individuals aged 22–29 years, gainfully employed in the private sector, with a CMD diagnosis in specialised healthcare or prescribed antidepressant (N = 12,121) in 2014 (Year 0/Y0), with follow-up from Y-3 to Y + 6. Group-based trajectory analyses identified groups of individuals who followed similar trajectories of months of WD and unemployment, respectively. Multinomial logistic regression determined associations between socio-demographic, work-related and clinical factors and trajectory membership.

In the CMD group, we identified three trajectory groups, each for WD and unemployment. Only 7% individuals belonged to a ‘Fluctuant high’ trajectory group with four months of WD in Y0, which peaked at 7 months in Y + 3 and reduced to 5 months in Y + 6. For unemployment, 15% belonged to an ‘Increasing medium’ trajectory group that steadily increased from 1.3 months in Y0 to 2.6 months in Y + 6. Sex, educational level and musculoskeletal disorders for WD, and educational level, living area and occupational class for unemployment, influentially determined the variance across the CMD trajectory groups.

Specific vulnerable groups regarding unfavourable WD (women, low education and musculoskeletal disorders) and unemployment (manual work, low education and rural residence) trajectories require special attention regarding their return-to-work process following a CMD diagnosis.