Early-childhood body mass index and its association with the COVID-19 pandemic, containment measures and islet autoimmunity in children with increased risk for type 1 diabetes

The aim of this study was to determine whether BMI in early childhood was affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and containment measures, and whether it was associated with the risk for islet autoimmunity.

Between February 2018 and May 2023, data on BMI and islet autoimmunity were collected from 1050 children enrolled in the Primary Oral Insulin Trial, aged from 4.0 months to 5.5 years of age. The start of the COVID-19 pandemic was defined as 18 March 2020, and a stringency index was used to assess the stringency of containment measures. Islet autoimmunity was defined as either the development of persistent confirmed multiple islet autoantibodies, or the development of one or more islet autoantibodies and type 1 diabetes. Multivariate linear mixed-effect, linear and logistic regression methods were applied to assess the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic and the stringency index on early-childhood BMI measurements (BMI as a time-varying variable, BMI at 9 months of age and overweight risk at 9 months of age), and Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess the effect of BMI measurements on islet autoimmunity risk.

The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with increased time-varying BMI (β = 0.39; 95% CI 0.30, 0.47) and overweight risk at 9 months (β = 0.44; 95% CI 0.03, 0.84). During the COVID-19 pandemic, a higher stringency index was positively associated with time-varying BMI (β = 0.02; 95% CI 0.00, 0.04 per 10 units increase), BMI at 9 months (β = 0.13; 95% CI 0.01, 0.25) and overweight risk at 9 months (β = 0.23; 95% CI 0.03, 0.43). A higher age-corrected BMI and overweight risk at 9 months were associated with increased risk for developing islet autoimmunity up to 5.5 years of age (HR 1.16; 95% CI 1.01, 1.32 and HR 1.68, 95% CI 1.00, 2.82, respectively).

Early-childhood BMI increased during the COVID-19 pandemic, and was influenced by the level of restrictions during the pandemic. Controlling for the COVID-19 pandemic, elevated BMI during early childhood was associated with increased risk for childhood islet autoimmunity in children with genetic susceptibility to type 1 diabetes.