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<p>Mountain plants often show preferences for certain topographic characteristics, both for warming and cooling effects, which can modify the response of plants to warming temperatures. We located 12,717 endangered <i>Puya raimondii</i> giant rosettes from satellite imagery and determined their topographic preferences (elevation, slope, aspect) in a study area in the south of Peru. We identified present-day habitat patches matching the species’ preferences in the study area, and projected ahead, in the same region, to 2100 using temperature change scenarios of + 1–5&#xa0;°C. We adjusted habitat availability in line with the species’ poor dispersal ability. <i>Puya raimondii</i> rosettes in the study area preferred elevations of 3900–4200&#xa0;m, slopes of 20–50°, and aspects of WNW through to ENE. Approximately 4% (36.4&#xa0;km²) of the study area in 2025 provided preferred topography within 1&#xa0;km of existing plants, but all of this habitat was lost by the + 4&#xa0;°C scenario, with large reductions associated with all the future projections. At the higher-temperature scenarios, suitable patches were still present in 2100 to the west of the study area, but beyond dispersal reach of existing plants. Long-lived <i>P. raimondii</i> faces dispersal challenges at a time when rapid climate change requires migration to distant areas. Cooler topographic meso- and microrefugia might provide closer topographic refuges in future, but this needs to be assessed directly. Assisted dispersal could be used to conserve the species regionally, but should take account of genetic diversity among the <i>Puya</i> populations and would require carefully-developed protocols to support it.</p>

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Lack of future high-elevation topographic refuges limit giant rosette plant survival in Puno, southern Peru

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月28日

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  • Paul M. Ramsay,
  • Gerson E. Prado,
  • Giovana P. Vadillo,
  • Liscely Tumi,
  • Mery L. Suni

摘要

Mountain plants often show preferences for certain topographic characteristics, both for warming and cooling effects, which can modify the response of plants to warming temperatures. We located 12,717 endangered Puya raimondii giant rosettes from satellite imagery and determined their topographic preferences (elevation, slope, aspect) in a study area in the south of Peru. We identified present-day habitat patches matching the species’ preferences in the study area, and projected ahead, in the same region, to 2100 using temperature change scenarios of + 1–5 °C. We adjusted habitat availability in line with the species’ poor dispersal ability. Puya raimondii rosettes in the study area preferred elevations of 3900–4200 m, slopes of 20–50°, and aspects of WNW through to ENE. Approximately 4% (36.4 km²) of the study area in 2025 provided preferred topography within 1 km of existing plants, but all of this habitat was lost by the + 4 °C scenario, with large reductions associated with all the future projections. At the higher-temperature scenarios, suitable patches were still present in 2100 to the west of the study area, but beyond dispersal reach of existing plants. Long-lived P. raimondii faces dispersal challenges at a time when rapid climate change requires migration to distant areas. Cooler topographic meso- and microrefugia might provide closer topographic refuges in future, but this needs to be assessed directly. Assisted dispersal could be used to conserve the species regionally, but should take account of genetic diversity among the Puya populations and would require carefully-developed protocols to support it.