<p>Cholera remains a considerable public health challenge globally, especially in regions with inadequate water infrastructure. During disease outbreaks, human behavior changes often serve as a critical, and sometimes primary, factor influencing disease transmission. This paper proposes a degenerate reaction-diffusion model that incorporates distinct human mobilities and human behavior change under a spatially heterogeneous environment to investigate the dynamics and mitigation of cholera outbreaks. A key index, the basic reproduction number, is introduced as a surrogate for infection risk, providing insights into the potential for extinction or persistence of cholera. The asymptotic profiles of positive steady states are explored as human mobility to zero or infinity. Specifically, positive human behavior changes may reduce the asymptotic profiles under certain conditions. Numerical simulations are employed to examine how heterogeneity, human mobility and human behavior change influence infection risk and final epidemic size. Our findings indicate that infection risk alone is insufficient for predicting final epidemic size. While human behavior changes do not fundamentally alter the infection risk, they may quantitatively reduce the final epidemic size, thereby regulating the spread of cholera. The methods and results presented in this study can be applied to investigate other host-pathogen models.</p>

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Cholera dynamics driven by human behavior change via a degenerate reaction-diffusion model

  • Wenjing Wu,
  • Qianying Zhang,
  • Hao Wang,
  • Shengqiang Liu

摘要

Cholera remains a considerable public health challenge globally, especially in regions with inadequate water infrastructure. During disease outbreaks, human behavior changes often serve as a critical, and sometimes primary, factor influencing disease transmission. This paper proposes a degenerate reaction-diffusion model that incorporates distinct human mobilities and human behavior change under a spatially heterogeneous environment to investigate the dynamics and mitigation of cholera outbreaks. A key index, the basic reproduction number, is introduced as a surrogate for infection risk, providing insights into the potential for extinction or persistence of cholera. The asymptotic profiles of positive steady states are explored as human mobility to zero or infinity. Specifically, positive human behavior changes may reduce the asymptotic profiles under certain conditions. Numerical simulations are employed to examine how heterogeneity, human mobility and human behavior change influence infection risk and final epidemic size. Our findings indicate that infection risk alone is insufficient for predicting final epidemic size. While human behavior changes do not fundamentally alter the infection risk, they may quantitatively reduce the final epidemic size, thereby regulating the spread of cholera. The methods and results presented in this study can be applied to investigate other host-pathogen models.