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<p>Climate change-driven shifts in precipitation regimes have intensified the frequency of meteorological disasters, directly impacting water resources and agricultural sustainability. This study investigated the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation in the Eastern Black Sea Basin (EBSB), the most humid basin in Türkiye, using data from nine meteorological stations for the 1965–2021 period. Five key indices were evaluated: the Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI), Modified Fournier Index (MFI), Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI), Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII), and the annual count of days with daily precipitation ≥ 20&#xa0;mm (R20). Temporal trends were analyzed using the classic Mann–Kendall (MK) test alongside two innovative approaches: the Combination of Wilcoxon Test and Scatter Diagram (CWTSD) and the Onyutha Trend Test (OTT). The findings demonstrate that precipitation patterns align closely with index variability. Eastern stations recorded the highest MFI, SDII, and R20 values, reflecting higher rainfall totals, whereas the lowest values were observed in the central part of the basin. Western stations exhibited intermediate levels, surpassing the central region but remaining below eastern thresholds. PCI exhibited an opposite pattern, with maximum values in the central of the basin and lower values in the east and west. RAI lacked a distinct spatial distribution. Trend analysis revealed a consistent downward trend at the Akcaabat station for both precipitation and indices, while most other stations exhibited increasing trends. The results from both innovative and classical methods were largely consistent, enhancing the reliability of the findings. Significant upward trends (at the 5% level) were detected in MFI, RAI, and annual precipitation, especially across in eastern and western stations. These outcomes emphasize the pronounced regional variability in precipitation regimes and provide critical insights for mitigating hydrological risks under a changing climate.</p>

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Indice-Based Characterization of Precipitation Variability Using Multiple Trend Analysis Methods in the High-Rainfall Eastern Black Sea Basin, Türkiye

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月29日

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  • Cihangir Koycegiz,
  • Kemal Saplıoğlu,
  • Meral Buyukyildiz

摘要

Climate change-driven shifts in precipitation regimes have intensified the frequency of meteorological disasters, directly impacting water resources and agricultural sustainability. This study investigated the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation in the Eastern Black Sea Basin (EBSB), the most humid basin in Türkiye, using data from nine meteorological stations for the 1965–2021 period. Five key indices were evaluated: the Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI), Modified Fournier Index (MFI), Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI), Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII), and the annual count of days with daily precipitation ≥ 20 mm (R20). Temporal trends were analyzed using the classic Mann–Kendall (MK) test alongside two innovative approaches: the Combination of Wilcoxon Test and Scatter Diagram (CWTSD) and the Onyutha Trend Test (OTT). The findings demonstrate that precipitation patterns align closely with index variability. Eastern stations recorded the highest MFI, SDII, and R20 values, reflecting higher rainfall totals, whereas the lowest values were observed in the central part of the basin. Western stations exhibited intermediate levels, surpassing the central region but remaining below eastern thresholds. PCI exhibited an opposite pattern, with maximum values in the central of the basin and lower values in the east and west. RAI lacked a distinct spatial distribution. Trend analysis revealed a consistent downward trend at the Akcaabat station for both precipitation and indices, while most other stations exhibited increasing trends. The results from both innovative and classical methods were largely consistent, enhancing the reliability of the findings. Significant upward trends (at the 5% level) were detected in MFI, RAI, and annual precipitation, especially across in eastern and western stations. These outcomes emphasize the pronounced regional variability in precipitation regimes and provide critical insights for mitigating hydrological risks under a changing climate.