Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Modelling and Water Resource Management in the Vaitarna River Basin

Climate change is significantly impacting hydrological processes in the Vaitarna River Basin, which is crucial for water resource management in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region. This study aims to assess the effects of climate change on hydrological processes, evaluate changes in water availability, and propose adaptive strategies for sustainable water management. Using data from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), future climate scenarios are generated based on projected greenhouse gas emissions. The Physically-Based Model—Hydrologic Modelling System (PBM-HMS) is employed to simulate streamflow and assess climate impacts. Additionally, a Smart Water Allocation System (SWAS) is integrated with IoT sensors to optimize water distribution. The Climate-Aware Transformer Network (CAT-Net) is used to improve model accuracy and enhance flood forecasting and drought management. The proposed method shows high accuracy, with values of 92% for precipitation, 90% for temperature, and 88% for streamflow. Future research will focus on refining climate models and developing adaptive strategies for enhanced water resource resilience.