<p>Weak shock theory based on cylindrical blast waves has been used to interpret meteor infrasound, but it has not been systematically benchmarked against a non-ablating hypersonic source with independently known parameters. The objective of this study is not to propose a new theoretical framework, but to evaluate the operational validity of the existing suite of blast radius formulations against a high-fidelity ground truth dataset. The OSIRIS-REx Sample Return Capsule reentry on 24 September 2023 provides such a benchmark because the capsule geometry, trajectory, and infrasound emission points are constrained from mission data and ray tracing, reducing source-side uncertainty associated with ablation. Using observations from 39 infrasound stations, this benchmarking study evaluates six published blast radius (<InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">${R}_{0}$</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msub> <mi>R</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>) formulations and three weak-shock transition coefficients (<InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$C$</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mi>C</mi> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>) within a stratified atmospheric propagation model to predict signal period and peak overpressure. The benchmarking identifies the Sakurai formulation as the best-performing formulation for non-ablating bodies, with the Jones/Plooster formulation performing comparably when a physically appropriate <InlineEquation ID="IEq3"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$C$</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mi>C</mi> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> is adopted. Sakurai and Jones/Plooster yield linear-period median absolute percentage residuals of 9% and 11%, respectively. The period predictions show only weak sensitivity to <InlineEquation ID="IEq4"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$C$</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mi>C</mi> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> at these propagation distances. The Mach-diameter approximation commonly used in meteor studies overestimates <InlineEquation ID="IEq5"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">${R}_{0}$</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msub> <mi>R</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> by more than a factor of 3 in the absence of ablation. These results establish a performance baseline for applying cylindrical blast wave theory to effectively non-ablating hypersonic bodies and demonstrate that the signal period is a robust observable for constraining <InlineEquation ID="IEq6"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">${R}_{0}$</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msub> <mi>R</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>.</p>

Benchmarking Cylindrical Blast Wave Theory Against the OSIRIS-REx Sample Return Capsule Reentry

期刊论文
发表日期：

2026年6月30日

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Elizabeth A. Silber

摘要

Weak shock theory based on cylindrical blast waves has been used to interpret meteor infrasound, but it has not been systematically benchmarked against a non-ablating hypersonic source with independently known parameters. The objective of this study is not to propose a new theoretical framework, but to evaluate the operational validity of the existing suite of blast radius formulations against a high-fidelity ground truth dataset. The OSIRIS-REx Sample Return Capsule reentry on 24 September 2023 provides such a benchmark because the capsule geometry, trajectory, and infrasound emission points are constrained from mission data and ray tracing, reducing source-side uncertainty associated with ablation. Using observations from 39 infrasound stations, this benchmarking study evaluates six published blast radius ( ${R}_{0}$ $R_{0}$ ) formulations and three weak-shock transition coefficients ( $C$ $C$ ) within a stratified atmospheric propagation model to predict signal period and peak overpressure. The benchmarking identifies the Sakurai formulation as the best-performing formulation for non-ablating bodies, with the Jones/Plooster formulation performing comparably when a physically appropriate $C$ $C$ is adopted. Sakurai and Jones/Plooster yield linear-period median absolute percentage residuals of 9% and 11%, respectively. The period predictions show only weak sensitivity to $C$ $C$ at these propagation distances. The Mach-diameter approximation commonly used in meteor studies overestimates ${R}_{0}$ $R_{0}$ by more than a factor of 3 in the absence of ablation. These results establish a performance baseline for applying cylindrical blast wave theory to effectively non-ablating hypersonic bodies and demonstrate that the signal period is a robust observable for constraining ${R}_{0}$ $R_{0}$ .