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<p>This study quantifies long-term changes in mean air temperature over the Mediterranean region and compares them with trends observed across broader spatial domains. High-resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) ERA5 temperature reanalysis data, produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts under the Copernicus Climate Change Service, were analyzed for the 85-year period 1940–2024. To ensure spatial representativeness, grid-cell values were cosine-weighted by latitude to account for differences in cell area. The Mediterranean domain comprises 13,585 grid cells, compared with 1,038,240 grid cells at the global scale. Data were retrieved via the Copernicus platform using the <i>cdsapi</i> library and processed in Python with the <i>pandas</i> package. Validation against in situ observations from Montenegro confirms the high consistency and reliability of the ERA5 temperature fields. Trend analysis reveals statistically significant warming in mean monthly, seasonal, and annual temperatures across 93–100% of the Mediterranean region. February, September, and November are the only months exhibiting non-significant trends over 11–25% of the domain. The most pronounced warming occurs over the Balkan Peninsula, Turkey, inland Spain, and northwestern Africa. Comparative analysis with 11 larger-scale regions (global mean, Northern and Southern Hemispheres, seven continents, and the Arctic) indicates that the Mediterranean ranks among the fastest-warming regions worldwide. Relative to the mid-twentieth century baseline, current mean annual temperatures are approximately 1.4–1.5&#xa0;°C higher in the Mediterranean and Europe, while the Arctic shows an increase of up to 2.6&#xa0;°C.</p>

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Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Mean Temperature in the Mediterranean Region and Its Comparison with Global, Hemispheric, and Continental Trends Based on ERA5 Reanalysis

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月29日

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  • Dragan Burić

摘要

This study quantifies long-term changes in mean air temperature over the Mediterranean region and compares them with trends observed across broader spatial domains. High-resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) ERA5 temperature reanalysis data, produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts under the Copernicus Climate Change Service, were analyzed for the 85-year period 1940–2024. To ensure spatial representativeness, grid-cell values were cosine-weighted by latitude to account for differences in cell area. The Mediterranean domain comprises 13,585 grid cells, compared with 1,038,240 grid cells at the global scale. Data were retrieved via the Copernicus platform using the cdsapi library and processed in Python with the pandas package. Validation against in situ observations from Montenegro confirms the high consistency and reliability of the ERA5 temperature fields. Trend analysis reveals statistically significant warming in mean monthly, seasonal, and annual temperatures across 93–100% of the Mediterranean region. February, September, and November are the only months exhibiting non-significant trends over 11–25% of the domain. The most pronounced warming occurs over the Balkan Peninsula, Turkey, inland Spain, and northwestern Africa. Comparative analysis with 11 larger-scale regions (global mean, Northern and Southern Hemispheres, seven continents, and the Arctic) indicates that the Mediterranean ranks among the fastest-warming regions worldwide. Relative to the mid-twentieth century baseline, current mean annual temperatures are approximately 1.4–1.5 °C higher in the Mediterranean and Europe, while the Arctic shows an increase of up to 2.6 °C.