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<p>Climate change is increasingly altering temperature and rainfall patterns worldwide. Regions like China's Yangtze River Delta (YRD) face considerable vulnerability due to population density and industrial development, particularly in major coastal estuaries. While prior research has evaluated trends of climate extremes in the YRD, research remains limited regarding their spatiotemporal changes relative to historical baseline periods. The research aimed to evaluate the changes compared to a 1951–1980 baseline using ERA5 reanalysis data (1951–2020), utilizing ETCCDI indices to offer a new viewpoint on climate shifts across the region. Furthermore, Sen's Slope estimator and modified Mann–Kendall are employed to quantify the trends' magnitude and assess their statistical significance. Results revealed substantial warming trends, particularly TNn (Minimum of the minimum temperature), with localized increases of more than 4&#xa0;°C in the recent period mean (1991–2020) compared to the baseline period mean (1951–1980). Additionally, the analyses detected mixed spatial precipitation patterns within the delta but an overall decreasing tendency in extreme rainfall indices. Notably, a shift was identified in heavy rainfall events from the northern to southern regions over time. The study highlights the region's vulnerability to climate change and emphasizes the importance of planning and taking action to adapt to these changes, aiming to reduce the negative impacts on both the economy and the hydro-climatology.</p>

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Investigating Climate Extremes over Yangtze River Delta, China: A Comprehensive Spatiotemporal Analysis and Insights

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月28日

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  • Ali Salem Al-Sakkaf,
  • Mohammed Magdy Hamed,
  • Abdulhaleem H. Labban,
  • Ali Almahri,
  • Adeel Ahmad,
  • Abdoul Aziz Saidou Chaibou,
  • Yasser M. Khalil,
  • Jiahua Zhang,
  • Fengmei Yao,
  • Shamsuddin Shahid,
  • Mohanned Abduljabbar Hael

摘要

Climate change is increasingly altering temperature and rainfall patterns worldwide. Regions like China's Yangtze River Delta (YRD) face considerable vulnerability due to population density and industrial development, particularly in major coastal estuaries. While prior research has evaluated trends of climate extremes in the YRD, research remains limited regarding their spatiotemporal changes relative to historical baseline periods. The research aimed to evaluate the changes compared to a 1951–1980 baseline using ERA5 reanalysis data (1951–2020), utilizing ETCCDI indices to offer a new viewpoint on climate shifts across the region. Furthermore, Sen's Slope estimator and modified Mann–Kendall are employed to quantify the trends' magnitude and assess their statistical significance. Results revealed substantial warming trends, particularly TNn (Minimum of the minimum temperature), with localized increases of more than 4 °C in the recent period mean (1991–2020) compared to the baseline period mean (1951–1980). Additionally, the analyses detected mixed spatial precipitation patterns within the delta but an overall decreasing tendency in extreme rainfall indices. Notably, a shift was identified in heavy rainfall events from the northern to southern regions over time. The study highlights the region's vulnerability to climate change and emphasizes the importance of planning and taking action to adapt to these changes, aiming to reduce the negative impacts on both the economy and the hydro-climatology.