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<p>The Yancheng-Nanyang’an Fault, a vertically-discharged fault in Jiangsu Province, poses significant potential seismic hazards. This study focuses on the Yancheng-Nanyang’an Fault traversing Yancheng. First, we estimate the maximum potential magnitude of the fault and predict its seismic occurrence probability over different time horizons (50, 100, and 200&#xa0;years). Second, we develop a multi-scale coupled “episource-pathway-site” model using stochastic finite fault method to simulate seismic motion distribution under three rupture patterns. Results indicate that peak ground acceleration values near the fault exceed 300 gal. Subsequently, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis calculates peak ground acceleration for recurrence periods of 475 and 2600&#xa0;years. Finally, consistency analysis between stochastic finite fault simulations and probabilistic seismic hazard results validates the multi-scale coupled model's reliability, providing physically grounded potential seismic motions. The findings offer critical scientific data for earthquake disaster prevention in Yancheng, seismic-resistant building design, and emergency response plan development.</p>

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Seismic Motion Simulation and Seismic Hazard Assessment of Active Faults in Yancheng, Jiangsu

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月3日

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  • Yutong Jiang,
  • Zhuojuan Xie,
  • Lifang Zhang,
  • Yu Li,
  • Yuejun Lv

摘要

The Yancheng-Nanyang’an Fault, a vertically-discharged fault in Jiangsu Province, poses significant potential seismic hazards. This study focuses on the Yancheng-Nanyang’an Fault traversing Yancheng. First, we estimate the maximum potential magnitude of the fault and predict its seismic occurrence probability over different time horizons (50, 100, and 200 years). Second, we develop a multi-scale coupled “episource-pathway-site” model using stochastic finite fault method to simulate seismic motion distribution under three rupture patterns. Results indicate that peak ground acceleration values near the fault exceed 300 gal. Subsequently, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis calculates peak ground acceleration for recurrence periods of 475 and 2600 years. Finally, consistency analysis between stochastic finite fault simulations and probabilistic seismic hazard results validates the multi-scale coupled model's reliability, providing physically grounded potential seismic motions. The findings offer critical scientific data for earthquake disaster prevention in Yancheng, seismic-resistant building design, and emergency response plan development.