<p>The formation of large hail is often accompanied by increased lightning activity, and the density of lightning flashes may serve as a predictive indicator of hailfall. However, the quantitative relationship between hail characteristics and lightning events remains understudied in many regions, including Northern Eurasia. This study presents an analysis of lightning activity accompanying hail events in Russia. Our analysis is based on data from the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) and a database containing over 3100 hail event reports in Russia for the 2016–2024 period. We estimate the number and density of lightning flashes in the surrounding areas of the reported hail events and analyze the spatial distribution of the lightning activity characteristics that accompany hail events. The distributions of number and density of lightning accompanying hail events are generally described by a power law and has two sections with different rates of change in the frequency, which can be associated with different types of convection organization. A nonlinear relationship is found between the characteristics of lightning activity and hail diameter. We calculate forecast skill scores using various values of lightning flash density as forecast for large hail (with a diameter of ≥ 20&#xa0;mm), and then maximize these scores to determine the threshold values for lightning flash density that discriminate between non-hail and large hail events. Our findings could help refine information about the location and/or timing of large hail events that lack such information, by using lightning data. The obtained relationships between lightning and hail could potentially be used to estimate the true frequency of large hail events in low-populated regions with a sparse network of weather stations.</p>

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Lightning Activity Accompanying Hail Events in Russia in 2016–2024

  • K. N. Pustovalov,
  • A. V. Bugrimov,
  • S. G. Davletshin,
  • A. N. Shikhov,
  • A. V. Chernokulsky

摘要

The formation of large hail is often accompanied by increased lightning activity, and the density of lightning flashes may serve as a predictive indicator of hailfall. However, the quantitative relationship between hail characteristics and lightning events remains understudied in many regions, including Northern Eurasia. This study presents an analysis of lightning activity accompanying hail events in Russia. Our analysis is based on data from the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) and a database containing over 3100 hail event reports in Russia for the 2016–2024 period. We estimate the number and density of lightning flashes in the surrounding areas of the reported hail events and analyze the spatial distribution of the lightning activity characteristics that accompany hail events. The distributions of number and density of lightning accompanying hail events are generally described by a power law and has two sections with different rates of change in the frequency, which can be associated with different types of convection organization. A nonlinear relationship is found between the characteristics of lightning activity and hail diameter. We calculate forecast skill scores using various values of lightning flash density as forecast for large hail (with a diameter of ≥ 20 mm), and then maximize these scores to determine the threshold values for lightning flash density that discriminate between non-hail and large hail events. Our findings could help refine information about the location and/or timing of large hail events that lack such information, by using lightning data. The obtained relationships between lightning and hail could potentially be used to estimate the true frequency of large hail events in low-populated regions with a sparse network of weather stations.