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<p>Relocated hypocenters (EHB) and the focal mechanisms reported by the Global CMT and Franco et al. (Geofísica Internacional 59(2):54–80, 2020) are used to study in detail the geometry and state of stress in the subducted Cocos plate and the maximum depth of the seismogenic zone. Ten profiles were plotted along the Mesoamerican Trench in the Oaxaca–Chiapas subduction zone, oriented in the direction of convergence. The seismicity and the focal mechanisms observed define three general segments of the plate geometry. They are defined as the Puerto Escondido–Huatulco, Tehuantepec, and Chiapas regions. The results suggest a gradual increase in the depth of seismogenic width from Oaxaca to the Chiapas subduction zone. Based on the width of the seismogenic plate contact and the length of this segment of the subduction zone, the potential largest magnitude earthquake in the Puerto Escondido–Huatulco region could be as large as <i>M</i><sub><i>w</i></sub> 8.5. In the Tehuantepec segment, a <i>M</i><sub><i>w</i></sub> 8.3 event could be expected and in the Chiapas region an earthquake <i>M</i><sub><i>w</i></sub> 8.1. However, a much larger earthquake could take place if the rupture were to extend to several of these segments, as it apparently happened in 1787.</p>

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Estimation of the Potential Maximum Magnitude of Subduction Earthquakes in the Oaxaca–Chiapas Subduction Zone, Mexico

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月28日

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  • M. Rosario Martínez-López,
  • Gerardo Suárez

摘要

Relocated hypocenters (EHB) and the focal mechanisms reported by the Global CMT and Franco et al. (Geofísica Internacional 59(2):54–80, 2020) are used to study in detail the geometry and state of stress in the subducted Cocos plate and the maximum depth of the seismogenic zone. Ten profiles were plotted along the Mesoamerican Trench in the Oaxaca–Chiapas subduction zone, oriented in the direction of convergence. The seismicity and the focal mechanisms observed define three general segments of the plate geometry. They are defined as the Puerto Escondido–Huatulco, Tehuantepec, and Chiapas regions. The results suggest a gradual increase in the depth of seismogenic width from Oaxaca to the Chiapas subduction zone. Based on the width of the seismogenic plate contact and the length of this segment of the subduction zone, the potential largest magnitude earthquake in the Puerto Escondido–Huatulco region could be as large as Mw 8.5. In the Tehuantepec segment, a Mw 8.3 event could be expected and in the Chiapas region an earthquake Mw 8.1. However, a much larger earthquake could take place if the rupture were to extend to several of these segments, as it apparently happened in 1787.