Scholarlink

<p>The study is focused on the spatial–temporal details of rainfall characteristics of the Mayurakshi basin from 1991 to 2020. The main goal of the present study is to examine the spatio temporal rainfall variability of the study area based on the long-term trend along with checking how the rainfall variability has influenced the rainfall trend and forecasting of the study area. For the same, rainfall data was downloaded from IMD Puna, and the same is predicted for the ensuing ten years. The study examines the long-term trend, variability, and seasonal character of rainfall, including the changing nature with dry and wet conditions dominating in the basin. This could provide some insight into the basin's characteristics. The long-term rainfall trend was evaluated by modified Mann–Kendall (mMK) statistics, and the magnitude of the trend was estimated using Sen’s slope. The result showed a variable trend of rainfall, while the magnitude of the trend was found to be negative. The change point in rainfall was evaluated by applying the Pettitt test, the Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT), and Buishand's U test. In general, for the study area, the change point statistics showed that the computed p-value is lower than the significant level ∝  = 0.05, which indicated a significant change point of rainfall in 2008. The rainfall seasonality index (RSI) of all rainfall stations was evaluated to understand the seasonal nature of rainfall. RSI was found to be equable in indefinite weather, i.e., monsoonal rainfall. The drought and wet conditions of the basin were evaluated by the rainfall anomaly index (RAI). The RAI revealed that the basin experienced 50% of the years of drought during the 30-year period. Rainfall forecasting was done using the empirical approach of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). The fitted model ARIMA (0,0,0) (0,1,1) [12] revealed a decrease in the annual rainfall (1342.69&#xa0;mm) over the period of the next 10&#xa0;years. The study area being an agrarian region, the result of this study will be helpful for future sustainable planning that can be beneficial for sustainable agriculture through proper crop management and water use based on the chaging environmental conditions, thereby enabling inching forward towards SDG 2.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Variability of Gridded Rainfall Data, Time Series Trend Analysis and Rainfall Forecasting of Mayurakshi Basin of Eastern India

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月19日

查看全文
  • David Durjoy Lal Soren,
  • Dhivya Karmegam,
  • Brototi Biswas

摘要

The study is focused on the spatial–temporal details of rainfall characteristics of the Mayurakshi basin from 1991 to 2020. The main goal of the present study is to examine the spatio temporal rainfall variability of the study area based on the long-term trend along with checking how the rainfall variability has influenced the rainfall trend and forecasting of the study area. For the same, rainfall data was downloaded from IMD Puna, and the same is predicted for the ensuing ten years. The study examines the long-term trend, variability, and seasonal character of rainfall, including the changing nature with dry and wet conditions dominating in the basin. This could provide some insight into the basin's characteristics. The long-term rainfall trend was evaluated by modified Mann–Kendall (mMK) statistics, and the magnitude of the trend was estimated using Sen’s slope. The result showed a variable trend of rainfall, while the magnitude of the trend was found to be negative. The change point in rainfall was evaluated by applying the Pettitt test, the Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT), and Buishand's U test. In general, for the study area, the change point statistics showed that the computed p-value is lower than the significant level ∝  = 0.05, which indicated a significant change point of rainfall in 2008. The rainfall seasonality index (RSI) of all rainfall stations was evaluated to understand the seasonal nature of rainfall. RSI was found to be equable in indefinite weather, i.e., monsoonal rainfall. The drought and wet conditions of the basin were evaluated by the rainfall anomaly index (RAI). The RAI revealed that the basin experienced 50% of the years of drought during the 30-year period. Rainfall forecasting was done using the empirical approach of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). The fitted model ARIMA (0,0,0) (0,1,1) [12] revealed a decrease in the annual rainfall (1342.69 mm) over the period of the next 10 years. The study area being an agrarian region, the result of this study will be helpful for future sustainable planning that can be beneficial for sustainable agriculture through proper crop management and water use based on the chaging environmental conditions, thereby enabling inching forward towards SDG 2.