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Characterization of Seismicity and Seismic Hazard in the Coquimbo Region, Chile: A Probabilistic Study

  • Valentina Ojeda,
  • Pedro Vega-Jorquera,
  • Erick de la Barra,
  • Luis Palma-Chilla,
  • Luis Vidal,
  • José Saavedra,
  • Alfredo Pizarro

摘要

In order to seismically characterize Chile’s northern Coquimbo Region, data from 2003 to 2020 were considered. The region was divided into 30 zones of \(0.5^\circ\) 0 . 5 latitude and \(0.5^\circ\) 0 . 5 longitude and non-extensive statistical physics was used. Both, the Sotolongo–Costa–Posadas (SCP) and Mathai models were deployed to analyze the magnitude-frequency distribution. A sub-division into cells of the catalog allowed to demonstrate that systems with value of \(q \sim 1\) q 1 present exponential behavior, while it was expected to obtain \(q > 1\) q > 1 , by superimposing sub-systems supporting the superstatistical model. Thus, by subdividing the Coquimbo region into south and north, we found that in both zones the entropic index is greater than 1, \(q>1\) q > 1 , However, in the southern zone the long-range effects are greater than in the north, according to the value obtained, which means both sectors are well described under a nonextensive statistical model, be it the SCP model or the Mathai one. The entropic index is \(q>1\) q > 1 and in both cases \(R^2>0.99\) R 2 > 0.99 . As the region is considered as a whole, the nonextensive statistical distribution is the more adequate one. With respect to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, Mathai’s model proved to have the better fit. Thus, the frequency-interevent time distribution was used for different limit magnitude values. Our analysis showed that the probability occurrence of a seismic event in the region’s north is lower than in the south considering the same period. In the north the behavior is of Poissonian type.